# Betting Strategy

##### Put your money in the right places to build your bankroll

## What is EV? Why does it matter?

EV stands for "expected value." In gambling, it refers to the expected winnings of a given bet. It is calculated by multiplying all possible winnings by the probability each outcome has of occurring.

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For example, take a coin flip. You and your friend each bet $10. If it lands on heads, you win and get $20. If it lands on tails, you lose. To calculate the expected value of this $10 bet, look at the following:

EV = Outcome 1 x Probability of O1 + Outcome 2 x Probability of O2

EV = $20 x 50% + $0 x 50%

EV = $10

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So, the EV of this $10 bet is $10, meaning it is perfectly fair. In the real world, however, this is hardly ever the case. Sportsbooks and casinos always put the odds in their favor, meaning that any bet you make has an EV of less than the amount you bet. This is referred to as negative EV.

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At Big Pick Energy, we identify bets with positive EV. This means that every bet you place is statistically likely to make you money. Obviously, not every bet is going to win; especially since PrizePicks and Underdogs use parlays. However, we do provide a significant edge to bettors who use our service. Given enough time and volume, this service provides bets that are mathematically proven to earn you money.

## Site-Specific EV Calculations

Click on one of the betting sites below to get a more in-depth analysis of what plays to place on each site.

## VOLUME is important

Despite every play having positive EV, not every play is going to hit.

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EV represents the average expected value given an infinite sample size. This means that if you place 1 million plays for $1 each with an EV of 1.5, you would end up with around $1.5 million. This does NOT mean that placing 1 play for $1 million would win you $1.5 million.

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On PrizePicks, 6-pick flex plays offer the best EV. On Underdog, 5-pick plays offer the best EV. It is important to remember that this EV is only realized if you place enough bets. If every leg has a 60% chance of hitting, a single 6-pick flex play on PrizePicks only has a 4.7% chance. That means that less than 1 in every 20 of these 6-pick flex plays will hit. Expect to lose a lot. However, the ones that DO hit net you 25x your bet. So, given enough bets, you are expected to profit in the long run.

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What does this information mean for you?

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Placing a large number of small bets is more likely to earn you profit than placing a small number of large bets. Don't place a $100 parlay; place ten $10 parlays. If you don't have the bankroll to place a large number of bets, then maybe focus on smaller, safer plays.

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TL;DR: Place MORE bets, not bigger bets

## PrizePicks

The table above displays the EV of each Sleeper play type as a function of the probability of each leg in the parlay. The column on the left shows a percentage for each leg in a parlay, and as you move horizontally, you can see the expected value of this parlay. Keep in mind that this EV is a multiplier (1.664 EV on a $20 bet is $20 x 1.664 = $33.28).

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At different percentages, different play types provide the best EV. The column on the right shows the best play type for each probability value. At 50%, 5 Pick Flex plays reign supreme. At 55% and up, 6 Pick Flex plays are preferred.

PrizePicks intends for every pick on their site (except for promos) to be a 50/50 pick. At a probability of 50%, all plays have an EV multiplier of < 1 (negative EV) meaning that you will lose money.

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At Big Pick Energy, however, we find picks that have a >50% chance of winning. We typically find picks with probabilities in the range of 58% - 65%, with some plays having up to a 75% chance of hitting. At these levels, 6 Pick Flex plays offer the best EV. For example, if you parlay 6 picks together that all have a 60% chance of hitting, you have an expected value of 1.664. This means that a $100 bet has an expected value of $166.40.

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TL;DR: 6 Pick Flex plays provide the best value.

### PrizePicks Value Rankings

1. 6-pick flex

2. 5-pick flex

3. 4-pick power

## Underdog

The table above displays the EV of each Sleeper play type as a function of the probability of each leg in the parlay. The column on the left shows a percentage for each leg in a parlay, and as you move horizontally, you can see the expected value of this parlay. Keep in mind that this EV is a multiplier (1.555 EV on a $20 bet is $20 x 1.555 = $31.10).

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At different percentages, different play types provide the best EV. The column on the right shows the best play type for each probability value. At 50%, 4-Pick Insured plays reign supreme. At 54%, 5-Pick Insured plays are preferred. At odds of 56% and up, 5-Pick plays provide the best EV.

Underdog intends for every pick on their site (except for promos) to be a 50/50 pick. At a probability of 50%, all plays have an EV multiplier of < 1 (negative EV) meaning that you will lose money.

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At Big Pick Energy, however, we find picks that have a >50% chance of winning. We typically find picks with probabilities in the range of 58% - 65%, with some plays having up to a 75% chance of hitting. At these levels, 5-Pick plays offer the best EV. For example, if you parlay 5 picks together that all have a 60% chance of hitting, you have an expected value of 1.555. This means that a $100 bet has an expected value of $155.50.

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TL;DR: 5-Pick plays provide the best value.

### Underdog Value Rankings

1. 5-Pick

2. 5-Pick Insured

3. 4-Pick Insured / 3-Pick

## Sleeper

The table above displays the EV of each Sleeper play type as a function of the probability of each leg in the parlay. The column on the left shows a percentage for each leg in a parlay, and as you move horizontally, you can see the expected value of this parlay. Keep in mind that this EV is a multiplier (1.555 EV on a $20 bet is $20 x 1.555 = $31.10).

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At different percentages, different play types provide the best EV. The column on the right shows the best play type for each probability value. At 50%, 3-Pick All In plays reign supreme. At 55% and up, 5-Pick All In plays are preferred.

Sleeper intends for every pick on their site (except for promos) to be a 50/50 pick. At a probability of 50%, all plays have an EV multiplier of < 1 (negative EV) meaning that you will lose money.

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At Big Pick Energy, however, we find picks that have a >50% chance of winning. We typically find picks with probabilities in the range of 58% - 65%, with some plays having up to a 75% chance of hitting. At these levels, 5-Pick All In plays offer the best EV. For example, if you parlay 5 picks together that all have a 60% chance of hitting, you have an expected value of 1.555. This means that a $100 bet has an expected value of $155.50.

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TL;DR: 5-Pick All In plays provide the best value.

### Sleeper Value Rankings

1. 5-Pick All In

2. 3-Pick All In

3. 5-Pick Classic

## ParlayPlay

The table above displays the EV of each Sleeper play type as a function of the probability of each leg in the parlay. The column on the left shows a percentage for each leg in a parlay, and as you move horizontally, you can see the expected value of this parlay. Keep in mind that this EV is a multiplier (1.296 EV on a $20 bet is $20 x 1.296 = $25.92).

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At different percentages, different play types provide the best EV. The column on the right shows the best play type for each probability value. At 50%, 3-Pick Insured plays reign supreme. At 56% and up, 4-Pick plays are preferred.

ParlayPlay intends for every pick on their site (except for promos) to be a 50/50 pick. At a probability of 50%, all plays have an EV multiplier of < 1 (negative EV) meaning that you will lose money.

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At Big Pick Energy, however, we find picks that have a >50% chance of winning. We typically find picks with probabilities in the range of 58% - 65%, with some plays having up to a 75% chance of hitting. At these levels, 4-Pick plays offer the best EV. For example, if you parlay 4 picks together that all have a 60% chance of hitting, you have an expected value of 1.296. This means that a $100 bet has an expected value of $129.60.

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TL;DR: 4-Pick plays provide the best value.

### ParlayPlay Value Rankings

1. 4-Pick

2. 2-Pick

3. 4-Pick Insured / 3-Pick

## Vivid Picks

The table above displays the EV of each Sleeper play type as a function of the probability of each leg in the parlay. The column on the left shows a percentage for each leg in a parlay, and as you move horizontally, you can see the expected value of this parlay. Keep in mind that this EV is a multiplier (1.635 EV on a $20 bet is $20 x 1.635 = $32.70).

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At different percentages, different play types provide the best EV. The column on the right shows the best play type for each probability value. At 50%, 2-Pick plays reign supreme. At 51%, 4-Pick plays are preferred. At odds of 52% and up, 5-Pick plays provide the best EV.

Vivid Picks intends for every pick on their site (except for promos) to be a 50/50 pick. At a probability of 50%, all plays have an EV multiplier of < 1 (negative EV) meaning that you will lose money.

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At Big Pick Energy, however, we find picks that have a >50% chance of winning. We typically find picks with probabilities in the range of 58% - 65%, with some plays having up to a 75% chance of hitting. At these levels, 5-Pick plays offer the best EV. For example, if you parlay 5 picks together that all have a 60% chance of hitting, you have an expected value of 1.635. This means that a $100 bet has an expected value of $163.50.

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TL;DR: 5-Pick plays provide the best value.

### Vivid Picks Value Rankings

1. 5-Pick

2. 4-Pick

3. 3-Pick